As of March 2002, six months after the September the 11th
terrorist attacks, the still-precarious office market in Downtown
is showing some signs of recuperating. Although the condition of
services and transit connections still is short of what the area
needs (and will be for some time to come), some of the financial
heavyweights have started to return operations to Downtown
Manhattan. As recipients of displaced firms, Midtown Manhattan
and New Jersey have been able to capitalize on the situation and
fill much of the vacant space caused by the "dot-com crash" of
2000.
The mid-2001 was a relative lull in the real estate market
as the economic bubble had burst and the rents went down in unison
with the indexes, the increased activity in the discount market
balancing
the loss of high-paying dot-commers. The office space market with
its excess of 480,000 m² of space was beginning to reel with
the landlords offering tempting new lease deals and, in case of
subleases -- space leased to a third party by the primary lessee
-- hefty discounts in price. The office space rents continued to
run at the healthy $60 and $47 (per sq.ft.) level for Midtown
and Downtown, respectively. Even though many companies in Downtown
and Midtown South had either called it quits (in the early 2001,
over 93,000 m² of space was vacated in the dot-com-land of
Midtown South) or downsized their staffs and relocated some of
their "back-office" operations out of Manhattan, the market seemed
to be relatively under control as the companies still held onto
much of the (empty) office space they had, keeping the market
prices higher. The pre-9/11 office market in NYC, the tightest in
the US, had only an average of 7.4 percent vacancy rate.
Acquisitions such as the Deutsche Bank's deal on the
60 Wall Street after it was vacated by
the merged JP Morgan Chase were keeping also Downtown Manhattan
in the game. New areas, such as the Midtown West in Hell's
Kitchen/Clinton were studied as an expansion of the Midtown
corporate enclaves that were getting increasingly filled with new
office skyscrapers.
The situation was still just a balancing act that could be changed
by a single occurrence like a drastic change in the economic
situation -- more likely for the worst. And that occurrence came
flying literally right through the heart of the NYC financial
center in Downtown on September the 11th, 2001.
As Downtown Manhattan lay in ruins and under an acrid cloud, the
financial firms that had already relocated much of their
"back-office" operations to other locations on and off-Manhattan
-- some unfortunately into the World Trade Center towers -- had to
flee the whole affected Hudson River front of Downtown for
other locations. An estimated of 650 companies and up to 100,000
employees were displaced by the attack and 1.4 million m²
of space destroyed and 1.1 million m² damaged (in all, 30
percent of all Downtown office space).
Two-thirds of the companies displaced by the attack moved to
other parts of Manhattan, only 9 percent remaining in Downtown.
Many dispersed their operations even further; American Express
moved their 3,000 workers into 63,300 m² of space in
three locations in New Jersey and Connecticut, being HQ'ed in NJ.
Of the ten large-scale relocation deals in the first ten days
after the attacks, half of the volume went to Midtown Manhattan
and the other half to NJ and Connecticut. In all, up to 30,000
jobs were relocated into suburbs from Downtown after 9/11.
An example of a relocation carried out by a major Downtown investment
bank was the Midtown-bound move of Lehman Brothers. Located
at the World Financial Center just
across West Street from the WTC, the firm not only had to evacuate
its 6,000 employees, but also had to take care of the latest computer
data stored in its servers. The presence of a fully-duplicated backup location in Jersey City and a
high-speed data connection between it and the WFC headquarters allowed
the data, especially firm's algorithms and financial models used in
financial analysis, to be transferred before the Manhattan data center
was rendered inoperable. Notably, the IT branch reacted fast and ordered
900 kilometers of fiber-optic cable on 9/11 -- by the next day the
Department of Defense had reserved all the fiber-optic supply for
itself to deal with the Pentagon reconstruction. The direct income loss
due to off-business time until the end of November was $400 million,
and with the WFC expected to be out of action well into the next year,
the firm had to assess the inventory for claims, get the operations
underway and relocate staff. To deal with the immediate relocation
needs, 37,000 m² of space at the
Citicorp Center as well as substantial space
within the Sheraton Manhattan and Sheraton New
York Hotel and Towers hotels was leased for 600 personnel, largely
empty as the hotels in Manhattan were at that time. The Jersey City
location took 1,000 personnel and further 2,000 worked from their homes. Immediately after the relocation, and before a new NYC headquarters
could be acquired, the London Canary Wharf location took over some of
the firm's data operations as a backup site. In October 2001, just one
month after the terrorist attacks, Morgan Stanley sold its almost
complete 745 Seventh Avenue at Times
Square to Lehman, thus allowing the firm to consolidate its operations
in a Manhattan location. Morgan Stanley had also lost 22 floors of
office space at the 2 WTC and three more at 5 WTC. The transaction took
place because the functions planned for the new building weren't
suitable for the displaced WFC-sections of the company, but undoubtedly
also the newly-found need for dispersion played a part in the decision,
located as the new tower was just across the crossroads from the firm's
1585 Broadway headquarters and adjacent to
the offices at the 750 Seventh Avenue.
The building transaction and post-9/11 refitting was helped by
Lehman's $700 million total insurance
payment, paid in large part within seven months, much sooner than
in most of the post-9/11 cases. Lehman Brothers moved into the building
in January 2002.
Of the displaced firms (as determined by the CoStar Group
analysis), about 500 were small to mid-sized companies (of 125 or
less employees and with space usage of 2,250 m² or less) that
had over 3,500 different choices for new office space in Manhattan.
The large companies with larger staff and space needs, however,
had in all only 268 options available in Manhattan. That's one of
the reasons that the large corporations opted to relocate
operations out of Manhattan.
Of the new leases for office space of over 4,600 m² for the
displaced, 65 percent were for spaces in Midtown, 17 percent in New
Jersey, 9 percent in Brooklyn and Queens and 5 percent in
Westchester and Connecticut. Of all leases, over 75 percent have
been for locations in Manhattan.
In March 2002, the vacancy rate is 9 percent in Midtown (In June,
almost 11) and 14 percent in Downtown, which translates into over
3.4 million m² of unleased office space. That is a million
m² more than just before the attacks. The tenants' subleasing
of excess space
and the placing of recaptured office space into market, as well as
the competition from cheap (a relative term) office space
off-Manhattan have led to the increased amount of unleased
space in Manhattan. In Downtown, as much as half the space
available is in the sublet category, whereas in Midtown the figure
is around 30 percent.
19 September 2002: The vacancy rate in Downtown is 16
percent (up from the 3.8 percent at the end of 2000); 20 percent
if the vacant space not actively marketed is included into
calculations. The World Financial Center, for example, has no less
than 232,000 m² of vacant space.
25 December 2002: An Insignia/ESG study of the Downtown
market in October showed a 14.5 percent vacancy rate in terms of
unoccupied space; the figure for actually unleased (non-paid)
space was approx. only 9 percent, though. These figures don't
show the 24,000 m² in leases signed after the study.
12 May 2003: The mid-April deals in Dowtown dropped the
vacancy to 12.7 percent (Cushman & Wakefield). The Midtown figure
is 11.1 percent. Both are in fact lower than in any other major
business district in the US.
21 June 2003:
Midtown's Class-A space availability is a steady 10.2 percent,
while Downtown fell to 12.3 percent since April (Colliers ABR).
30 November 2004:
After the merger of Wachovia and
Prudence, and the resulting excess of office space, the
Downtown vacancy rate shot from 14.7 to 15.3 percent (CB Richard
Ellis).
12 February 2005: The vacancy rate in Downtown is 15.8
percent and the average rent $30.15 per sq.ft, whereas in Midtown
the figures are 10.7 percent and $50.29, respectively (CB Richard
Ellis).
14 November 2005: With vacancy rates declining across the
board, in October the office vacancy rates were 11.8 percent for
Downtown and 8.7 for Midtown markets. The overall availability figure
for Manhattan was 9.4 percent. Class-A vacancy for Manhattan was 8.2
percent. (Colliers ABR).
31 January 2006: In 2005, the Midtown vacancy fell to 7.8
percent, Midtown South to 7.4 and Downtown to 10.6. Overall Manhattan
vacancy level fell from 11 percent at the end of 2004 to 8.4 in 2005,
the lowest it has been in six years. Downtown Class-A vacancy
fell by 43.5 percent to 10.1, although the volume itself was still
the lowest in the market since 1992. Asking price for all of Manhattan
rose to $40.58 per sq.ft and there were $15.1 billion worth of real
estate investment sales in 2004. (Cushman & Wakefield)
21 March 2006: It is estimated that the office vacancy rate in
Manhattan will decrease below 5 and 3 percent by 2008 and 2009,
respectively. Despite ongoing or finished office developments, the
construction of new office space has fallen drastically in the recent
years, partly due to increased costs, partly due to the lack of
suitable sites -- ones preferably with ample development rights as
well as availability of public transport, a combination that is
getting very difficult to find. The resulting increase in demand is
expected to lead to rent increases, up to a whopping $90 per sq.ft.
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that every year approx. 850,000
m² of leases is due to expire for the next 10 years; with
existing leases facing considerable price hikes, it is feared that
many of the affected 500 companies will eye locations outside NYC.
(CB Richard Ellis)
See also:
"So, whose Manhattan office
market numbers do you believe?"
A serious consideration in the post-9/11 Downtown office market is
the fact that the buildings directly affected, such as the destroyed
World Trade Center complex and
7 World Trade Center and the evacuated
World Financial Center,
130 Liberty Street and the
1 Liberty Plaza formed no less than 60
percent of the first class, modern office space in Downtown.
These buildings with their modern cabling and wiring as well as
large floor plates are/were well-suited for the activities of the
financial firms.
The loss of all that premium space has its effect on the area,
although the previously-vacated space in other modern, major
skyscrapers, such as the 55 Water Street,
helps to deal with the immediate demand.
The development in Midtown after World War Two and the extensive
construction of modern office buildings there (in the decade after
the war more office space was built in Midtown than was in all of
Chicago) was taken to Downtown only in the
early 1960s when the Chase Manhattan Bank
rose to the heart of the Financial District. The development was
continued by the idea and subsequent construction of the
World Trade Center as a hub for new
financial and corporate clients, just like the pre-war
Rockefeller Center in
Midtown. All three developments also happened to be driven forward
by the Rockefellers, although the WTC didn't for a long time
attract very much interest from clients despite the cheap rents
afforded by its status as state-owned real estate.
Although the World Trade Center (which was well filled and slightly
above the Downtown average with its $50 rent by 9/11) was mainly
a "back-office" location for most of the financial heavyweights
under discussion in this section -- with the companies rather opting
for their "own" namesake buildings -- Cantor Fitzgerald was one that
was headquartered in the 1 WTC itself (and where they lost 658
of the 1,050 employees there).
The second large office complex in Downtown,
World Financial Center, also on
state-owned land, had the non-fortune of being finished just as the
1987 crash hit the market. Vacancy in Downtown hit almost post-1929
Depression levels at 22 percent and many buildings went into
bankruptcy. The continued bad times led to such measures as the
conversion of office buildings into
apartments and the introduction of the Lower Manhattan BID.
The old reason for all the financial trader companies being
located in Downtown, to be physically near the Stock Exchange
for the completion of deals, was no longer necessary after the
introduction of electronic communication with the exchange
and from 1980 on the requirement of "presence" was discarded
by the NYSE. For example, the First Boston bank made the move to
Midtown Manhattan after it was discovered that the
firm spent no less than $2 million every year on cab fares uptown.
Some of the factors that affect clients' choice of a Midtown
location over Downtown are the relative difficulty of reaching
Downtown by mass transit, the lack of high-quality restaurants
and the prior relocation to Midtown of other companies, ie. the
potential clients.
The difficulty of getting Midtown-level rents in Downtown has
discouraged the developers from building more office
buildings into Downtown, whereas a number of high-profile
skyscrapers have risen from the late-1990s onward in Midtown.
The amount of construction in New Jersey has been largely due to
the cheaper cost of land acquisition and construction (which must
be cheaper about anywhere as compared to NYC...!). Both have
indeed claimed office space users from Downtown even before 9/11.
After years of relocating into this more affordable space in "tech
towns" like Jersey City across Hudson River, the early 2002 may,
however, show signs of the tenants' flow to NJ slowing in favour
of Midtown Manhattan. In many cases, companies are even relocating
back into Downtown after having left the devastated southern
Manhattan for Midtown and off-Manhattan locations. The returning
firms to Downtown in the early 2002 include the following financial
heavyweights:
Merrill Lynch and American Express are relocating a
large number of their employees -- 6,000 and 4,000, respectively --
back into the 2, 3 and 4 World Financial
Center next to the WTC "Ground Zero". On Merrill's (of the
displaced the firm with most office space in Downtown, 290,000
m²) 2 and 4 WFC, even the previously vacant 42,000 m² has
lately been the target for prospective tenants.
8 December 2002: With the law firm Thacher Proffitt &
Woods choosing the 2 WFC over the 32
Old Slip, 12,800 m² of the Merrill sublease space has been
taken off the market; the deal is also a coup in the east-west
waterfront battle in attracting potential tenants.
8 February 2003: The property management firm Jones Lang
LaSalle opens a branch in the building, to act as a base of
operations for its Downtown business.
25 July 2003: A 9,300 m² deal with the State Street
Bank will all but remove the surplus Merrill Lynch space in the
building.
26 November 2004: American Express signed a lease for
14,400 m² at the 3 WFC; the company will vacate a total of
18,500 m² of space in the 40 Wall
Street before its lease in the building terminates in 2009.
15 November 2005: American Express has taken 18,600 m²
off Brookfield Properties at the 3 WFC. Brookfield, which owns half
of the 195,000 m² building (Amex itself owns the other half),
reports that it has now 21,400 m² left unrented. The Merrill
Lynch sublease space at 2 WFC is now almost completely taken.
Similarly, Brookfield's and Merrill Lynch's 4 WFC is fully
occupied.
Aon Corporation from 2 WTC (losing 200 of its employees) is
another company that is seeking relocation back to Downtown
(125 Broad Street as one possibility)
after occupying space in Midtown (685 Third Ave.) and off-Manhattan
locations.
26 May/28 July 2002: The company has, after all, rejected a
$5 million grant and will move permanently 800 of its employees to
the Midtown Park Avenue Plaza (to be
renamed the Aon Plaza) for a rent of about $58 per sq ft.,
occupying 25,000 m² of space. A small contingent will be left
in Downtown.
Cantor Fitzgerald, reduced to 350 employees in the attack
on 1 WTC, will stay in Midtown, as will Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
(787 Seventh Ave.) and Sandler O'Neill
& Partners (919 Third Ave.), both from the 2 WTC.
21 June 2003:
The WTC leaseholding company is suing the firm for over $1 million
in back rent for the time before 9/11; the firm has denied any
obligation for a settlement.
Lehman Brothers, located at the 1 and 3 WFC (65,000 and
102,200 m², respectively), leased space
from 399 Park Ave. in Midtown (as well
as rented the whole 665-room Midtown Sheraton Manhattan Hotel for
its displaced employees immediately after 9/11) and bought shortly
afterwards the 9/11 the Midtown building that Morgan Stanley had
been constructing as their new headquarters at
745 Seventh Ave..
Morgan Stanley themselves had already 46,000 m² of
vacant space in Midtown after previous downsizing and the 3,700
from 2 WTC will probably be dispersed to the various locations in
NYC and Jersey City.
12 February 2005: Lehman has finalized the deal for 28,500
m² of space in the 1301 Sixth Ave. The new space will be
connected to the 745 Seventh headquarters through the Rockefeller
Center underground concourse.
As a sidenote, the British Standard Chartered Bank, which moved its
NYC offices to NJ after the destruction of the
7 World Trade Center, was put off by the
hefty $75 sq.ft. price of space in the nearly completed
5 Times Square in Midtown and moved
to the approx. $30 (per sq.ft) cheaper 1
Madison Avenue in Midtown South.
The engineering company DMJM+Harris/Arup is in March 2002 the
first major occupant to obtain new office space in Downtown
Manhattan; three floors in the
20 Exchange Place
will house as much as 300 of the joint company's workers. The
space has been subleased for 12 years from the Internet advertising
firm Agency.com for a low-ish rent well below the $40 average price
in Downtown (the corresponding price in Midtown is over $50).
10 November: The company has leased approx. one floor of
additional space from Agency.com in the building, at $36 per sq.ft.
26 May 2002: KPMG, the third-largest accounting firm
in the world, as well as the law firm Richards Spears Kibbe & Orbe
are other two companies set for the Downtown, both into
1 WFC -- the latter having already
closed the deal for 8,400 m². KPMG (currently based in the
345 Park Avenue) is eyeing 46,500
m² of space in the tower, previously occupied by the relocated
Lehman Brothers. A total of five companies with over 10,000
employees are currently in discussions about Downtown office space
deals.
26 June: The KPMG deal has, after all, fallen through
as a result of something resembling an internal power struggle
within the landlord Lehman Brothers. The nearly-finished deal
on 41,800 m² of space within the 3 WFC (changed from the 1 WFC)
has been changed to a hunt for Midtown space for the firm's 2,500
relocated employees, although there is still an effort to lure the
firm to the Downtown. That could include the purchase of Lehman's
space within the 3 WFC by the largest Downtown landlord, Brookfield
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